February 2, 2024

Markerr has released a report on trends in multifamily rent, which includes a forecast for rent growth in 2024 using machine learning techniques. According to Markerr, the expected increase in rent for 2024 is projected to be 1.9%. The following are the major highlights from the report:

Markerr’s machine-learning rent forecast predicts 2024 rent growth to 1.9% YoY at the national level. The 5-year CAGR at the national level is forecasted to be 2.2%.

Tertiary markets are forecasted to have the highest 5-year rent growth CAGR at 2.5%, followed by Rustbelt markets, Sunbelt markets, and Coastal markets at 2.3%, 1.9%, and 1.6%, respectively.

Ranking first out of the top 100 markets, Knoxville, TN is forecasted to have the highest 5-year CAGR of 4.4%. The largest positive contributors to rent growth are home prices, single-family permits, and population growth. These features are driving the forecast higher, while multi-family permits and historical rent are forcing the forecast lower.

High growth Florida markets including Cape Coral and North Port saw the largest rent cuts in year-over-year.

Markerr analyzed rent growth across the top 100 markets for the year 2023 and revealed a significant trend: 20 markets exhibited negative Year-over-Year rent growth in every month. This list encompasses a diverse range of cities including Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Francisco, Riverside, Las Vegas, Sacramento, Providence (RI), New Orleans, Grand Rapids, Allentown, Boise City, North Port, Stockton, Winston, Syracuse, Toledo, Spokane, Harrisburg, Chattanooga, and Portland. This finding underscores the challenges and fluctuations experienced by rental market across various regions in 2023.